{
  "schema": "darkoza.existence-problem.v2",
  "title": "Synthetic demonstration — resilient scientific capability portfolio",
  "resource_budget": {
    "cpu_hours": {
      "limit": 8,
      "shadow_price": 0.4
    },
    "disk_gib": {
      "limit": 4,
      "shadow_price": 0.7
    },
    "cash_usd": {
      "limit": 0,
      "shadow_price": 1
    }
  },
  "mission_weights": {
    "discover": 0.3,
    "create": 0.2,
    "preserve": 0.3,
    "evolve": 0.2
  },
  "current_capabilities": [
    "baseline_inventory",
    "version_control"
  ],
  "target_capabilities": [
    "independently_replicated_result"
  ],
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "licensed_fixture_data",
      "status": "verified",
      "source": "fixture:synthetic-licensing-record"
    }
  ],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "resource_squeeze",
      "effect_case": "low",
      "externality_case": "high",
      "cost_case": "high",
      "risk_case": "high",
      "confidence_case": "low"
    },
    {
      "id": "reference",
      "effect_case": "base",
      "externality_case": "base",
      "cost_case": "base",
      "risk_case": "base",
      "confidence_case": "base"
    },
    {
      "id": "favourable",
      "effect_case": "high",
      "externality_case": "low",
      "cost_case": "low",
      "risk_case": "low",
      "confidence_case": "high"
    }
  ],
  "constraints": {
    "max_risk_per_action": 0.65,
    "max_total_risk": 0.6,
    "max_weighted_externality": 5,
    "max_plan_steps": 3,
    "regret_weight": 0.25,
    "require_reversible": true,
    "allow_approval_required": false
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "id": "evidence_contract",
      "title": "Define measurable evidence contract",
      "requires": [
        "baseline_inventory"
      ],
      "provides": [
        "evidence_contract",
        "reproducible_measurement"
      ],
      "requires_observations": [],
      "conflicts_with": [],
      "cost": {
        "cpu_hours": {
          "low": 0.2,
          "base": 0.4,
          "high": 0.6
        },
        "disk_gib": {
          "low": 0.02,
          "base": 0.05,
          "high": 0.08
        },
        "cash_usd": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "effects": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 5,
          "base": 6,
          "high": 7
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 3,
          "base": 4,
          "high": 5
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 7,
          "base": 8,
          "high": 9
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 6,
          "base": 7,
          "high": 8
        }
      },
      "externalities": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "risk": {
        "low": 0.02,
        "base": 0.03,
        "high": 0.05
      },
      "confidence": {
        "low": 0.86,
        "base": 0.93,
        "high": 0.98
      },
      "evidence_grade": "tested",
      "reversible": true,
      "approval_required": false,
      "preconditions": [
        "baseline available"
      ],
      "verification": [
        "run deterministic validation"
      ],
      "success_metrics": [
        "100% claims have provenance",
        "baseline and threshold are machine-readable"
      ],
      "rollback": "discard isolated outputs and retain immutable input"
    },
    {
      "id": "isolated_replay_lab",
      "title": "Create isolated replay and rollback boundary",
      "requires": [
        "evidence_contract"
      ],
      "provides": [
        "isolated_replay",
        "rollback_boundary"
      ],
      "requires_observations": [],
      "conflicts_with": [],
      "cost": {
        "cpu_hours": {
          "low": 0.5,
          "base": 0.9,
          "high": 1.5
        },
        "disk_gib": {
          "low": 0.15,
          "base": 0.3,
          "high": 0.5
        },
        "cash_usd": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "effects": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 4,
          "base": 5,
          "high": 7
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 5,
          "base": 6,
          "high": 7
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 8,
          "base": 9,
          "high": 10
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 7,
          "base": 8,
          "high": 9
        }
      },
      "externalities": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "risk": {
        "low": 0.03,
        "base": 0.06,
        "high": 0.1
      },
      "confidence": {
        "low": 0.8,
        "base": 0.9,
        "high": 0.97
      },
      "evidence_grade": "tested",
      "reversible": true,
      "approval_required": false,
      "preconditions": [
        "baseline available"
      ],
      "verification": [
        "run deterministic validation"
      ],
      "success_metrics": [
        "declared target metric passes"
      ],
      "rollback": "discard isolated outputs and retain immutable input"
    },
    {
      "id": "independent_replication",
      "title": "Run independent replication test",
      "requires": [
        "isolated_replay",
        "reproducible_measurement"
      ],
      "provides": [
        "independently_replicated_result"
      ],
      "requires_observations": [
        "licensed_fixture_data"
      ],
      "conflicts_with": [],
      "cost": {
        "cpu_hours": {
          "low": 1,
          "base": 1.8,
          "high": 2.7
        },
        "disk_gib": {
          "low": 0.5,
          "base": 1,
          "high": 1.6
        },
        "cash_usd": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "effects": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 7,
          "base": 9,
          "high": 10
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 2,
          "base": 4,
          "high": 6
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 7,
          "base": 9,
          "high": 10
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 7,
          "base": 9,
          "high": 10
        }
      },
      "externalities": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "risk": {
        "low": 0.06,
        "base": 0.11,
        "high": 0.18
      },
      "confidence": {
        "low": 0.65,
        "base": 0.8,
        "high": 0.92
      },
      "evidence_grade": "pilot",
      "reversible": true,
      "approval_required": false,
      "preconditions": [
        "baseline available"
      ],
      "verification": [
        "run deterministic validation"
      ],
      "success_metrics": [
        "declared target metric passes"
      ],
      "rollback": "discard isolated outputs and retain immutable input"
    },
    {
      "id": "package_reusable_capability",
      "title": "Package reusable verified capability",
      "requires": [
        "independently_replicated_result"
      ],
      "provides": [
        "reusable_capability_package"
      ],
      "requires_observations": [],
      "conflicts_with": [],
      "cost": {
        "cpu_hours": {
          "low": 0.3,
          "base": 0.7,
          "high": 1.1
        },
        "disk_gib": {
          "low": 0.1,
          "base": 0.25,
          "high": 0.4
        },
        "cash_usd": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "effects": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 3,
          "base": 5,
          "high": 7
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 8,
          "base": 9,
          "high": 10
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 7,
          "base": 8,
          "high": 9
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 8,
          "base": 9,
          "high": 10
        }
      },
      "externalities": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "risk": {
        "low": 0.03,
        "base": 0.06,
        "high": 0.1
      },
      "confidence": {
        "low": 0.7,
        "base": 0.84,
        "high": 0.94
      },
      "evidence_grade": "hypothesis",
      "reversible": true,
      "approval_required": false,
      "preconditions": [
        "baseline available"
      ],
      "verification": [
        "run deterministic validation"
      ],
      "success_metrics": [
        "declared target metric passes"
      ],
      "rollback": "discard isolated outputs and retain immutable input"
    },
    {
      "id": "independent_peer_review",
      "title": "Commission independent technical review",
      "requires": [
        "independently_replicated_result"
      ],
      "provides": [
        "independent_review_record"
      ],
      "requires_observations": [],
      "conflicts_with": [],
      "cost": {
        "cpu_hours": {
          "low": 0.2,
          "base": 0.4,
          "high": 0.7
        },
        "disk_gib": {
          "low": 0.03,
          "base": 0.08,
          "high": 0.15
        },
        "cash_usd": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "effects": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 6,
          "base": 8,
          "high": 9
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 1,
          "base": 2,
          "high": 3
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 8,
          "base": 9,
          "high": 10
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 6,
          "base": 8,
          "high": 9
        }
      },
      "externalities": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "risk": {
        "low": 0.01,
        "base": 0.03,
        "high": 0.06
      },
      "confidence": {
        "low": 0.6,
        "base": 0.75,
        "high": 0.9
      },
      "evidence_grade": "hypothesis",
      "reversible": true,
      "approval_required": false,
      "preconditions": [
        "baseline available"
      ],
      "verification": [
        "run deterministic validation"
      ],
      "success_metrics": [
        "declared target metric passes"
      ],
      "rollback": "discard isolated outputs and retain immutable input"
    },
    {
      "id": "unreviewed_public_claim",
      "title": "Publish unreviewed high-impact claim",
      "requires": [
        "evidence_contract"
      ],
      "provides": [
        "public_claim"
      ],
      "requires_observations": [],
      "conflicts_with": [],
      "cost": {
        "cpu_hours": {
          "low": 0.05,
          "base": 0.1,
          "high": 0.2
        },
        "disk_gib": {
          "low": 0.01,
          "base": 0.02,
          "high": 0.03
        },
        "cash_usd": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "effects": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 2,
          "base": 3,
          "high": 5
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 3,
          "base": 5,
          "high": 7
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 1,
          "base": 2,
          "high": 4
        }
      },
      "externalities": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 1
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 1,
          "high": 2
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 1,
          "base": 3,
          "high": 5
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 1,
          "base": 2,
          "high": 4
        }
      },
      "risk": {
        "low": 0.7,
        "base": 0.85,
        "high": 0.98
      },
      "confidence": {
        "low": 0.2,
        "base": 0.35,
        "high": 0.5
      },
      "evidence_grade": "unknown",
      "reversible": false,
      "approval_required": true,
      "preconditions": [
        "baseline available"
      ],
      "verification": [
        "run deterministic validation"
      ],
      "success_metrics": [
        "declared target metric passes"
      ],
      "rollback": "publish a correction; reputational damage may not be reversible"
    },
    {
      "id": "fragile_deep_analysis",
      "title": "Run expensive deep analysis only feasible in favourable conditions",
      "requires": [
        "independently_replicated_result"
      ],
      "provides": [
        "deep_analysis_result"
      ],
      "requires_observations": [],
      "conflicts_with": [],
      "cost": {
        "cpu_hours": {
          "low": 1,
          "base": 3,
          "high": 9
        },
        "disk_gib": {
          "low": 0.5,
          "base": 1,
          "high": 5
        },
        "cash_usd": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "effects": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 6,
          "base": 8,
          "high": 10
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 4,
          "base": 6,
          "high": 8
        },
        "preserve": {
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          "base": 6,
          "high": 8
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 5,
          "base": 8,
          "high": 10
        }
      },
      "externalities": {
        "discover": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "create": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "preserve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        },
        "evolve": {
          "low": 0,
          "base": 0,
          "high": 0
        }
      },
      "risk": {
        "low": 0.05,
        "base": 0.12,
        "high": 0.2
      },
      "confidence": {
        "low": 0.5,
        "base": 0.75,
        "high": 0.9
      },
      "evidence_grade": "hypothesis",
      "reversible": true,
      "approval_required": false,
      "preconditions": [
        "baseline available"
      ],
      "verification": [
        "run deterministic validation"
      ],
      "success_metrics": [
        "declared target metric passes"
      ],
      "rollback": "discard isolated outputs and retain immutable input"
    }
  ]
}