{ "schema": "darkoza.existence-plan.v2", "engine": "darkoza-epc-0.2", "generated_at_utc": "2026-11-03T12:00:00Z", "title": "Synthetic demonstration — resilient scientific capability portfolio", "input_digest_sha256": "d1272cb9e8c51208c0a05b67921e70e905db0cebf48acbfc95390700557cf217", "status": "target_reached", "decision": "PLAN_ONLY_NO_EXECUTION", "execution_performed": false, "scenario_method": { "type": "unweighted_explicit_stress_scenarios", "probabilities_assumed": false, "scenario_count": 3, "robust_selection": "worst_case_score - regret_weight * maximum_regret", "regret_weight": 0.25, "option_credit": "only actions newly feasible in every declared scenario; value uses the minimum scenario potential", "mean_warning": "scenario_mean_score_unweighted is descriptive only, not an expected value or probability-weighted forecast" }, "search": { "states_explored": 4, "truncated_at_limit": false, "max_plan_steps": 3 }, "scoring_policy": { "direct_value": "sum(weighted benefit in scenario * scenario confidence)", "externality": "subtract weighted negative effects in each scenario", "resource_cost": "sum(resource consumption * declared resource shadow price)", "risk": "subtract 4 * scenario risk", "resource_burden": "subtract 1.5 * mean fraction of declared budgets consumed", "target_bonus": "4 * fraction of target capabilities reached", "option_bonus": "2 * ln(1 + persistent_option_value)", "robust_score": "worst_case_score - regret_weight * max_regret", "important": "Ranges, scenario design, confidence, risk, externalities, costs and shadow prices are author-supplied assumptions, not independently measured facts." }, "recommended_plan": { "actions": [ "evidence_contract", "isolated_replay_lab", "independent_replication" ], "capabilities_after": [ "baseline_inventory", "evidence_contract", "independently_replicated_result", "isolated_replay", "reproducible_measurement", "rollback_boundary", "version_control" ], "target_capabilities_reached": [ "independently_replicated_result" ], "target_progress": 1.0, "persistent_new_options": [ { "id": "independent_peer_review", "title": "Commission independent technical review", "worst_scenario_option_value": 3.0 }, { "id": "package_reusable_capability", "title": "Package reusable verified capability", "worst_scenario_option_value": 3.616667 } ], "fragile_new_options": [ { "id": "fragile_deep_analysis", "title": "Run expensive deep analysis only feasible in favourable conditions", "available_in_scenarios": [ "favourable", "reference" ] } ], "persistent_option_value": 6.616667, "scenario_scores": { "resource_squeeze": { "direct_value": 13.344, "weighted_externality": 0.0, "risk_total": 0.33, "resource_shadow_cost": 3.446, "resource_budget_burden": 0.5725, "target_bonus": 4.0, "persistent_option_bonus": 4.060678, "score": 15.779928, "resource_use": { "cpu_hours": 4.8, "disk_gib": 2.18, "cash_usd": 0.0 } }, "reference": { "direct_value": 18.652, "weighted_externality": 0.0, "risk_total": 0.2, "resource_shadow_cost": 2.185, "resource_budget_burden": 0.3625, "target_bonus": 4.0, "persistent_option_bonus": 4.060678, "score": 23.183928, "resource_use": { "cpu_hours": 3.1, "disk_gib": 1.35, "cash_usd": 0.0 } }, "favourable": { "direct_value": 23.767, "weighted_externality": 0.0, "risk_total": 0.11, "resource_shadow_cost": 1.149, "resource_budget_burden": 0.19, "target_bonus": 4.0, "persistent_option_bonus": 4.060678, "score": 29.953678, "resource_use": { "cpu_hours": 1.7, "disk_gib": 0.67, "cash_usd": 0.0 } } }, "scenario_mean_score_unweighted": 22.972511, "worst_case_score": 15.779928, "best_case_score": 29.953678, "worst_case_externality": 0.0, "worst_case_risk": 0.33, "resource_use_by_scenario": { "resource_squeeze": { "cpu_hours": 4.8, "disk_gib": 2.18, "cash_usd": 0.0 }, "reference": { "cpu_hours": 3.1, "disk_gib": 1.35, "cash_usd": 0.0 }, "favourable": { "cpu_hours": 1.7, "disk_gib": 0.67, "cash_usd": 0.0 } }, "scenario_regrets": { "resource_squeeze": 0.0, "reference": 0.0, "favourable": 0.0 }, "max_regret": 0.0, "max_regret_scenario": "resource_squeeze", "robust_score": 15.779928, "scenario_top_count": 3, "scenario_rank_stability": 1.0 }, "scenario_winners": { "resource_squeeze": [ "evidence_contract", "isolated_replay_lab", "independent_replication" ], "reference": [ "evidence_contract", "isolated_replay_lab", "independent_replication" ], "favourable": [ "evidence_contract", "isolated_replay_lab", "independent_replication" ] }, "experiment_contracts": [ { "action_id": "evidence_contract", "title": "Define measurable evidence contract", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "preconditions": [ "baseline available" ], "required_observations": [], "success_metrics": [ "100% claims have provenance", "baseline and threshold are machine-readable" ], "verification": [ "run deterministic validation" ], "rollback": "discard isolated outputs and retain immutable input", "reversible": true, "approval_required": false, "evidence_grade": "tested", "benefit_ranges_not_measured": { "discover": { "low": 5.0, "base": 6.0, "high": 7.0 }, "create": { "low": 3.0, "base": 4.0, "high": 5.0 }, "preserve": { "low": 7.0, "base": 8.0, "high": 9.0 }, "evolve": { "low": 6.0, "base": 7.0, "high": 8.0 } }, "externality_ranges_not_measured": { "discover": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "create": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "preserve": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "evolve": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 } } }, { "action_id": "isolated_replay_lab", "title": "Create isolated replay and rollback boundary", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "preconditions": [ "baseline available" ], "required_observations": [], "success_metrics": [ "declared target metric passes" ], "verification": [ "run deterministic validation" ], "rollback": "discard isolated outputs and retain immutable input", "reversible": true, "approval_required": false, "evidence_grade": "tested", "benefit_ranges_not_measured": { "discover": { "low": 4.0, "base": 5.0, "high": 7.0 }, "create": { "low": 5.0, "base": 6.0, "high": 7.0 }, "preserve": { "low": 8.0, "base": 9.0, "high": 10.0 }, "evolve": { "low": 7.0, "base": 8.0, "high": 9.0 } }, "externality_ranges_not_measured": { "discover": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "create": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "preserve": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "evolve": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 } } }, { "action_id": "independent_replication", "title": "Run independent replication test", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "preconditions": [ "baseline available" ], "required_observations": [ "licensed_fixture_data" ], "success_metrics": [ "declared target metric passes" ], "verification": [ "run deterministic validation" ], "rollback": "discard isolated outputs and retain immutable input", "reversible": true, "approval_required": false, "evidence_grade": "pilot", "benefit_ranges_not_measured": { "discover": { "low": 7.0, "base": 9.0, "high": 10.0 }, "create": { "low": 2.0, "base": 4.0, "high": 6.0 }, "preserve": { "low": 7.0, "base": 9.0, "high": 10.0 }, "evolve": { "low": 7.0, "base": 9.0, "high": 10.0 } }, "externality_ranges_not_measured": { "discover": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "create": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "preserve": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "evolve": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 } } } ], "pareto_alternatives": [ { "actions": [ "evidence_contract", "isolated_replay_lab", "independent_replication" ], "capabilities_after": [ "baseline_inventory", "evidence_contract", "independently_replicated_result", "isolated_replay", "reproducible_measurement", "rollback_boundary", "version_control" ], "target_capabilities_reached": [ "independently_replicated_result" ], "target_progress": 1.0, "persistent_new_options": [ { "id": "independent_peer_review", "title": "Commission independent technical review", "worst_scenario_option_value": 3.0 }, { "id": "package_reusable_capability", "title": "Package reusable verified capability", "worst_scenario_option_value": 3.616667 } ], "fragile_new_options": [ { "id": "fragile_deep_analysis", "title": "Run expensive deep analysis only feasible in favourable conditions", "available_in_scenarios": [ "favourable", "reference" ] } ], "persistent_option_value": 6.616667, "scenario_scores": { "resource_squeeze": { "direct_value": 13.344, "weighted_externality": 0.0, "risk_total": 0.33, "resource_shadow_cost": 3.446, "resource_budget_burden": 0.5725, "target_bonus": 4.0, "persistent_option_bonus": 4.060678, "score": 15.779928, "resource_use": { "cpu_hours": 4.8, "disk_gib": 2.18, "cash_usd": 0.0 } }, "reference": { "direct_value": 18.652, "weighted_externality": 0.0, "risk_total": 0.2, "resource_shadow_cost": 2.185, "resource_budget_burden": 0.3625, "target_bonus": 4.0, "persistent_option_bonus": 4.060678, "score": 23.183928, "resource_use": { "cpu_hours": 3.1, "disk_gib": 1.35, "cash_usd": 0.0 } }, "favourable": { "direct_value": 23.767, "weighted_externality": 0.0, "risk_total": 0.11, "resource_shadow_cost": 1.149, "resource_budget_burden": 0.19, "target_bonus": 4.0, "persistent_option_bonus": 4.060678, "score": 29.953678, "resource_use": { "cpu_hours": 1.7, "disk_gib": 0.67, "cash_usd": 0.0 } } }, "scenario_mean_score_unweighted": 22.972511, "worst_case_score": 15.779928, "best_case_score": 29.953678, "worst_case_externality": 0.0, "worst_case_risk": 0.33, "resource_use_by_scenario": { "resource_squeeze": { "cpu_hours": 4.8, "disk_gib": 2.18, "cash_usd": 0.0 }, "reference": { "cpu_hours": 3.1, "disk_gib": 1.35, "cash_usd": 0.0 }, "favourable": { "cpu_hours": 1.7, "disk_gib": 0.67, "cash_usd": 0.0 } }, "scenario_regrets": { "resource_squeeze": 0.0, "reference": 0.0, "favourable": 0.0 }, "max_regret": 0.0, "max_regret_scenario": "resource_squeeze", "robust_score": 15.779928, "scenario_top_count": 3, "scenario_rank_stability": 1.0 } ], "actions_blocked_from_initial_state": [ { "id": "fragile_deep_analysis", "title": "Run expensive deep analysis only feasible in favourable conditions", "reasons": [ "missing_capabilities:independently_replicated_result", "resource_limit:cpu_hours:resource_squeeze", "resource_limit:disk_gib:resource_squeeze" ] }, { "id": "independent_peer_review", "title": "Commission independent technical review", "reasons": [ "missing_capabilities:independently_replicated_result" ] }, { "id": "independent_replication", "title": "Run independent replication test", "reasons": [ "missing_capabilities:isolated_replay,reproducible_measurement" ] }, { "id": "isolated_replay_lab", "title": "Create isolated replay and rollback boundary", "reasons": [ "missing_capabilities:evidence_contract" ] }, { "id": "package_reusable_capability", "title": "Package reusable verified capability", "reasons": [ "missing_capabilities:independently_replicated_result" ] }, { "id": "unreviewed_public_claim", "title": "Publish unreviewed high-impact claim", "reasons": [ "missing_capabilities:evidence_contract", "reversibility_required", "approval_not_permitted", "per_action_risk_limit:resource_squeeze", "cumulative_risk_limit:resource_squeeze", "per_action_risk_limit:reference", "cumulative_risk_limit:reference", "per_action_risk_limit:favourable", "cumulative_risk_limit:favourable" ] } ], "interpretation": [ "No scenario probabilities are inferred; scenarios are stress cases, not forecasts.", "Persistent options are only immediate next steps enabled in all declared scenarios.", "Fragile options are shown but receive no persistent-option credit.", "A plan is not an execution authorization or proof that predicted outcomes occurred.", "Human approval, authenticated identity and a separate sandboxed executor remain external requirements." ], "decision_digest_sha256": "6991f753e3059944fd46fcf4d52bd8f26aaf409aefd1c287a0f839638cb43fc1" }